Our latest market commentary - Kick-off in Europe

Over the past couple of months, we have seen the odds of a Brexit ebb and flow in sync with the latest sensationalist propaganda from either ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’.  At one stage last week ‘Leave’ was 4/1 at the bookies; but can it really be so unlikely that the UK leaves the EU?  We doubt it.  Given the many conversations that we have had both in and outside of the office with clients, friends, strangers and family we believe that the vote may well be closer than these odds suggest. This is supported by the data emanating from the polls, for example the Guardian/ICM poll released on June 1st has voters split 52%-48% in favour of Brexit.   However who really believes the polls these days?