Our latest commentary

Stock markets have started 2019 in excellent fashion, with most of the equity indices that we track generating strong returns over the quarter. However, last week the dreaded ‘inverted yield curve’ raised its ugly head once again. You may recall from some of our previous missives that when US short-dated government bonds start to yield more than long-dated government bonds (an inverted yield curve), this has historically been a precursor to recession in the US economy. It may well be different this time around (as we argued at the time) but this well-regarded technical factor is certainly worthy of consideration because it has persisted into 2019.